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iron ore market outlook anticipating the impact of chinas economic pivot and policy measures 61

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Iron Ore Market Outlook: Anticipating the Impact of China's Economic Pivot and Policy Measures

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Benjamin Hughes

May 10, 2024 - 03:34 am

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Iron Ore Faces a Long-Term Demand Decline Amid China's Economic Shift

The iron ore market's modest bounce back in recent times belies a tougher reality: the strategic shift in China's economy towards a reduced focus on property development is poised to hold back demand over the coming years. Despite the temporary boost iron ore prices received after a significant drop below $100 per ton in early April, bolstered by an uptick in Chinese steel market strength, the vision for a less property-dependent economy in China paints a long-term picture of muted demand.

Steel Exports and Policy Support Lift Iron Ore Temporarily

Robust increases in steel exports, a rejuvenated pace of factory activity, and the anticipation of further supportive measures from President Xi Jinping's administration have all contributed to iron ore's recovery. At a key industry conference in Singapore, a critical hub for iron ore trade, the prevailing concern for those involved has been the uncertain future of the Chinese real estate sector.

Atilla Widnell, Navigate Commodities Pte.'s managing director, conveyed that while manufacturing showed initial promise, it has since decelerated. The iron ore bulls argue steel exports are a sign of market health, yet Widnell suggests that robust exports typically emerge when the domestic market is faltering.

The Influence of China's Construction Industry

China’s construction boom at the turn of the century catalyzed rampant demand for iron ore, yielding hefty returns for mining titans such as BHP Group Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group. The current agenda from Beijing, however, is steering the nation towards an innovation-led, environmentally friendly manufacturing base.

“The shift in the economy is structural in nature; there's no counterbalance for the downturn in demand for construction-related steel," noted Tomas Gutierrez, Kallanish Commodities analyst, echoing the pervasive sentiments at the Singapore conference.

Iron Ore's Short-Term Prospects

Nevertheless, this structural change in China's economy does not rule out the potential for short-term appreciations in iron ore values. The commodity saw movement towards $120 per ton lately before experiencing a mild setback. Futures in Singapore hovered around $115.45 by the early hours, a decrease of 1.4% for the week.

Among the attendees with an optimistic outlook was Mengtian Jiang, the chief analyst for iron ore at Horizon Insights. Jiang posits that iron ore prices may soar as high as $140 per ton within the current year. This price surge is attributed to the policy incentives from Beijing, such as the issuance of special bonds to finance infrastructure, coupled with a rekindling of steel stocking cycles elsewhere across the globe.

Brazil's mining heavyweight, Vale SA, also projected a sunnier perspective for the short-term iron ore demand. The expectation is that the stimulation protocols enacted by the government will generate tangible benefits in the latter half of the year.

Counterpoints from Market Pessimists

Yet, there are numerous market observers adopting a more cautionary stance. Analysts from Citigroup anticipate iron ore to stabilize at approximately $110 across the current and upcoming quarters. Macquarie Group Ltd. forecasts an average price of $116 per ton in 2024, while Navigate Commodities opined the "general consensus" among conference attendees advocated for prices near the $100 mark.

Some suggest that a reliance on local government financing poses a risk that could undermine infrastructure investment and expenditure, leading to skepticism regarding the central government's capacity to amp up and inject further stimulatory measures into the economy. Such concerns were noted by Citigroup analysts in a recent briefing.

Citigroup analysts also raised flags concerning the remarkably successful steel export sector, suggesting it may be a temporary reprieve from domestic challenges. Since the year's outset, overseas shipments have been at their peak since 2016.

To learn more about the implications of China's steel exports, please visit China’s Surging Steel Exports Are Inflaming Global Trade Tension.

Increasing protectionism presents a serious obstacle for Chinese steel and other manufactured goods on the international stage. Citigroup indicated this as a pivotal concern, supported by the findings released by HSBC Holdings Plc last month, highlighting the growth in steel quantities within exported merchandise.

In the broader view, Beijing appears to hold back from launching the colossal infrastructure investment strategies it has turned to in the past. And as per Anant Jatia, founder and chief information officer of Greenland Investment Management, "Without improvements in steel margins, which have remained weak for an extended period, the surge in iron or demand is hard to envision." This sentiment was shared at the industry gathering in Singapore.

Conclusion

As the horizon for iron ore continues to evolve amid these emerging economic patterns, market participants will closely observe the push and pull of governmental policies, international trading dynamics, and the shift within one of the world's largest economies. The iron ore sector is braced for the inevitable impact of these forces on its future trajectory.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P. For the original content regarding this analysis, click here.

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